"Genesis 49:10 doesn't set a deadline"
The claim, stated fairly
Shiloh is a place or a general blessing on Judah, not a deadline for the Messiah.
Ancient Jewish readers took Shiloh as the Messiah, and the sceptre left Judah in the first century.
Targum Onkelos renders the verse "until the Messiah comes, whose is the kingdom". The Talmud says the Messiah's name is Shiloh (Sanhedrin 98b).
Judah's self-rule ended with Roman rule and the Temple's destruction in the first century. Yeshua, of the tribe of Judah (Hebrews 7:14), came before that.
The text
10לֹֽא־יָס֥וּר שֵׁ֨בֶט֙ מִֽיהוּדָ֔ה וּמְחֹקֵ֖ק מִבֵּ֣ין רַגְלָ֑יו עַ֚ד כִּֽי־יָבֹ֣א שילה [שִׁיל֔וֹ] וְל֖וֹ יִקְּהַ֥ת עַמִּֽים׃
10The sceptre shall not depart from Judah, Nor the ruler’s staff from between his feet, As long as men come to Shiloh; And unto him shall the obedience of the peoples be.
WEB/WMB: The scepter will not depart from Judah, nor the ruler’s staff from between his feet, until he comes to whom it belongs. The obedience of the peoples will be to him.
Genesis 49:10 (Hebrew, JPS 1917, WMB)
In the New Covenant
14For it is evident that our Lord has sprung out of Judah, about which tribe Moses spoke nothing concerning priesthood.
Hebrews 7:14 (WMB)
Where scholars disagree
Shiloh is a hard word and has several readings (a place; tribute to him; "until he comes to whom it belongs"). The ancient messianic reading is Jewish; the dating argument is ours.
Sources
- Targum Onkelos on Genesis 49:10
- Babylonian Talmud, Sanhedrin 98b
- Hebrew: Westminster Leningrad Codex. English: JPS 1917; World Messianic Bible (public domain).